Intellectualization method and model of complex technical system’s failures risk estimation and prediction

Abstract

The article describes the developed intellectualization method and model of the complex system failures risk technical condition assessment and prediction by diagnostic features. The developed model has a relative insensitivity to incomplete data about the system and is considered as a conceptual one for an intelligent system for assessing and predicting the complex technical systems failures risk on network infrastructures. Developed method and model can take into account the hierarchical levels of subsystems (components), intersystem (interelement) links when searching for the failures causes. Proposed method and model allow us to control the risk of failures in complex technical systems when information about failures in their structures is received. In addition, the application of the method and model makes it possible to predict trends in the risk of system failures, taking into account changes in the risk of failures, in order to further choose a strategy for their recovery.