Determining the Influence of Transformation Changes in the Life Cycle on the Assessment of Effectiveness of an Ecologistic System Project

Abstract

The issue of assessing the effectiveness of a project of an ecologistic system using the criteri­on of «a discounted payback period», which takes into consideration the transformational changes in the project life cycle, was considered.The specific features of the life cycle of a pro­ject of an ecologistic system, in the structure of which it is proposed to include environmen­tally­oriented regeneration and revitalization phases, were explored. The phases of a life cycle were divided into stages, between which con­secutive and parallel relations were established. The project life cycle consists of time intervals, during which from one to three stages of the pro­ject phases can run in parallel. A model of the life cycle of an ecologistic system, which shows the relations between time intervals and cash flows that correspond to the stages of the project life cycle phases, was developed. A mathematical formula for calculating the discounted payback period of a project, which takes into consideration the specific features of the formation of cash flows of separate phases of the life cycle of an ecolo­gistic system, was proposed. The application of the formula is possible when assuming the con­stancy of cash flows of the stages of operational and the regeneration phases, which corresponds to the conditions of uncertainty of their forecast­ing at the beginning of the project. The functio­nal dependences between the discounted payback period and cash flows during the phases of a pro­ject life cycle were studied.Depending on a phase of the life cycle, the dependence is expressed by a linear, polyno mial, or power function. The identification of function­al dependences makes it possible to study the dynamics of changes in the discounted payback period with changes in project cash flows, which can be used in forecasting the effectiveness of an ecologistic system project