Аннотация:
Purpose: Elaborate and substantiate stochastic models of occupational risk evaluation for
application in the occupation health and safety.
Design/methodology/approach: Analysis of scientific and technical literature and
regulatory framework for risk evaluation in the occupation health and safety; methods of
probability theory, theory of Markov processes; methods of restoration theory.
Findings: A system of differential equations and limit conditions for finding the limit
distribution of probabilities of a random process of occupational dangers is derived. Based
on the results of solving the limit value task, expressions to determine a number of key
indicators by which the level of occupational risk can be evaluated are obtained.
Research limitations/implications: The proposed approach aims to evaluation the risk
associated with the impact on the employee of harmful factors, but can also be used to
evaluate the injury risk. But in this case the received limit value task will be much more difficult.
Practical implications: The application of the proposed approach allows to increase
the level of occupational safety by taking into account the stochastic characteristics of the
negative factors impact on the employee during occupational risks evaluating, as well as
the possibility of setting such values of controllable parameters that will allow with a certain
probability to ensure not to exceed the level of impact accumulation in the employee of the
consequences of these factors.
Originality/value: Stochastic models of occupational risk evaluation based on the
application of Markov drift processes for the modeling the hybrid nature of the negative
factors impact on the employee, which occurs within the real systems "man - technical
system - production environment" were elaborated and substantiated for the first time.
