Modelling and Managing the Effect of Transferring the Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Prices of Machine-Building Enterprises in Ukraine

Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment of the transfer of exchange rates to domestic prices for the products of machine-building enterprises in Ukraine. It was made conclusion as a result of the study about the high value of the indicator of the transfer of currency rates to the prices of machine-building enterprises in Ukraine, which confirms the high degree of dependence of the Ukrainian economy on the dollar rate. This indicates a high degree of dollarization of the basic sectors of the economy of Ukraine, which include of machine-building enterprises. The study found that the main reason for transferring the dynamics of exchange rates on the prices for the products of machine-building enterprises of Ukraine is a change in production costs for raw materials, resources, a change in exchange rates. As a model for assessing the degree of transfer of currency rates to the prices of engineering enterprises were chosen the autocorrelation method and the predictive ARIMA model. The ARIMA model allowed detected a time gap between the change in the exchange rate indices and the change in domestic prices for products of Ukrainian machine-building enterprises. It was proposed to take into account in the process of pricing a new factor of influence - "time factor", which takes place in the calculation of prices taking into account the effect of the transfer of exchange rate changes. It was proposed indicators of modified price elasticity coefficients for engineering products depending on the rate of change in exchange rates. Autocorrelation was used to determine further the correctness of the selected model, which confirmed the adequacy of the selected model. The second order of stationarity was also observed. The aim of the research is to develop a methodology for modelling and managing the effect of shifting the dynamics of the exchange rates on the prices of the enterprises of machine-building in Ukraine. The main factors that increase the dependence of domestic prices on products of machine-building enterprises from exchange rates are: liberalization of the economy and openness of the machine-building industry for foreign markets; dependence of the raw material and resource base on imported components; increase in the export of machine-building products; weak price differentiation of production of machine-building enterprises.