SWOT analysis as an effective way to obtain primary data for mathematical modeling in project risk

Abstract

The paper proposes to consider the use of such a classic risk analysis tool as a SWOT analysis in conjunction with the construction of a Markov model for further analysis of the elements of a SWOT matrix. A review of the areas of application of the SWOT analysis is suggested under the assumption that in all these cases, the approach described by the authors is also possible. It is proposed to use an extension of existing analysis methods based on the SWOT matrix, including TOWS and similar methods based on combinations of the effects of pairwise combinations of blocks of the SWOT matrix. We consider the option of constructing an adjacency matrix on the basis of the entire set of SWOT factors with its further analysis using both Markov methods and analysis of the number of connections that may arise in each particular case of applying this approach in an adjacency matrix of the corresponding order corresponding to the state when the matrix ceases to contain "empty" (equal to zero) elements. An example of a fragment of a real complex SWOT analysis implemented using Microsoft Excel software is given. It is proposed to use the described method in the management of portfolios of projects of organizations.